Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | HC +120 BU -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +20 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | HC -2.0 (+18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HC -0.8 (+19.2) | 130.7 (-6.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HC -0.6 (+19.4) | 130.5 (-6.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HC -1.4 (+18.6) | 131.6 (-7.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HC -0.5 (+19.5) | 132.2 (-8.2) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | BU 78 – 63 HC |
| Feb 3, 2026 | BU 72 – 64 HC |
| Jan 28, 2025 | BU 69 – 59 HC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | BU 94 – 84 HC |
| Jan 30, 2024 | HC 65 – 63 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-13 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#300) | -7.5 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#253) | -1.10 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#275) | -1.47 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#232) | 0.453 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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