Betting Lines
| Spread | BELL -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | BELL -200 USI +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BELL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USI +2 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | BELL -8.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BELL -3.5 (-5.5) | 141.1 (-1.1) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BELL -3.3 (-5.3) | 144.1 (-4.1) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BELL -2.9 (-4.9) | 141.0 (-1.0) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BELL | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-26 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 5-15 |
| Home | 5-10 | 8-7 |
| Away | 0-16 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#250) | -0.5 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#335) | -1.96 (#340) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.49 (#332) | -2.68 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#103) | 0.306 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BELL | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 24.2% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.5% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 37.7% |
Game Analysis
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