Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | CAL +115 WAKE -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +10 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | WAKE -1.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -0.6 (-9.4) | 140.3 (+1.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -0.5 (-9.5) | 140.0 (+2.0) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -0.7 (-9.3) | 138.2 (+3.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -0.6 (-9.4) | 139.5 (+2.5) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | WAKE 80 – 73 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-11 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#115) | 7.3 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#130) | 2.61 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#125) | 2.93 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#170) | 0.587 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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