Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -300 WRST +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +9 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -14.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -10.4 (-1.4) | 155.5 (+7.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -12.6 (-3.6) | 153.7 (+9.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -10.7 (-1.7) | 154.8 (+8.2) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | TOL 81 – 71 WRST |
| Nov 15, 2023 | TOL 78 – 77 WRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.1 | 77.5 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#40) | 3.6 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#23) | 2.61 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#18) | 4.09 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.758 (#23) | 0.800 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 24.1% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 57.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.4% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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