Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | ORST +160 SMC -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +14 | 112 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -2.5 (-11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (-22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -2.7 (-11.3) | 131.0 (-19.0) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -1.4 (-12.6) | 132.9 (-20.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -1.4 (-12.6) | 134.1 (-22.1) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -1.3 (-12.7) | 133.4 (-21.4) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | SMC 81 – 51 ORST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | SMC 74 – 64 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 17-1 |
| Home | 15-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 61.8 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#63) | 15.2 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#64) | 2.53 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#62) | 3.44 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#98) | 0.621 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 14.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 40.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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