Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -1600 BALL +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +8 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -18.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -16.0 (-8.0) | 140.5 (+5.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -20.3 (-12.3) | 139.0 (+7.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -21.8 (-13.8) | 138.0 (+8.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 16-2 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#44) | -0.7 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#60) | -0.64 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#62) | -0.86 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.760 (#22) | 0.250 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 32.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 24.2% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 44.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.71 | 1.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 38.2% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 8.8% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 43.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 8.9% |
| DRB% | 78.6% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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