Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | USC -190 PSU +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +25 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | USC -1.5 (+23.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -2.8 (+22.2) | 149.0 (+10.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -3.0 (+22.0) | 148.7 (+10.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -3.3 (+21.7) | 148.1 (+10.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -3.0 (+22.0) | 149.1 (+9.9) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | USC 77 – 75 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-7 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#61) | 11.2 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#57) | 1.09 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#50) | 1.78 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#64) | 0.527 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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