Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | VAN -340 CAL +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +16 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -13.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -10.6 (+5.4) | 155.8 (-1.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -5.5 (+10.5) | 153.1 (+0.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -10.3 (+5.7) | 149.9 (+4.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -11.6 (+4.4) | 152.4 (+1.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#60) | 2.3 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#128) | 0.77 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#132) | 1.03 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#242) | 0.688 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 18.6% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 50.5 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 18.5 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.90 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 6.9% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 40.7% | 38.7% |
| FT Rate | 39.4% | 41.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 88.9% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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