Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -20000 OAK +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +12 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -37.0 (-25.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-28.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -25.0 (-13.0) | 143.6 (-23.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -32.9 (-20.9) | 143.6 (-23.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -35.3 (-23.3) | 144.8 (-24.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2023 | ILL 64 – 53 OAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 13.7 (#12) | -13.6 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#77) | -0.64 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#69) | -1.04 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#105) | 0.250 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 27.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 11.5% |
| REB / G | 52.5 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.06 | 0.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.7% | 29.5% |
| TOV% | 12.0% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 40.5% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 41.7% | 6.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.6% | 60.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.1% | 11.0% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 60.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.5% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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