Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | USC -2000 UTA +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +3 | 193 | Won |
| Massey | USC -22.5 (-19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (+35.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -17.7 (-14.7) | 150.8 (+42.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -19.5 (-16.5) | 147.1 (+45.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -23.0 (-20.0) | 149.3 (+43.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 6-10 |
| Home | 12-7 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#71) | -7.1 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#115) | -1.55 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#116) | -2.31 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#213) | 0.625 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 18.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.73 | 1.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 11.1% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 47.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.4% | 59.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.3% | 10.7% |
| DRB% | 62.7% | 53.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.4% | 32.8% |
Game Analysis
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