Betting Lines
| Spread | NOLA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | NOLA -135 LIN +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NOLA +8 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | LIN -2.8 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIN -1.5 (+9.5) | 144.8 (+11.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIN -1.8 (+9.8) | 144.7 (+11.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIN -1.2 (+9.2) | 143.2 (+12.8) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | LIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-27 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 10-10 |
| Home | 0-11 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-15 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L13 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.5 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -10.9 (#341) | -8.1 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#319) | -0.42 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.05 (#318) | -0.63 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#99) | 0.500 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | LIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.0% | 35.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 16.7% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.0% | 38.5% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 11.6% | 15.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 63.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 53.1% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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