Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | SDST -170 UNCO +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +9 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCO -6.9 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 176.7 (-29.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -2.9 (-6.1) | 155.3 (-8.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -1.6 (-7.4) | 154.7 (-7.7) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -2.0 (-7.0) | 157.7 (-10.7) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-1 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#191) | 6.2 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#71) | -0.40 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#84) | -0.33 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#176) | 0.562 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 14.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.6% | 53.4% |
Game Analysis
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