Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | PAC -230 NAU +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +3 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | PAC -13.5 (-16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-33.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -8.8 (-11.8) | 143.1 (-26.1) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -8.9 (-11.9) | 140.7 (-23.7) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -11.6 (-14.6) | 144.6 (-27.6) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2023 | NAU 78 – 58 PAC |
| Dec 7, 2022 | NAU 73 – 69 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-10 | 10-5 |
| Away | 2-13 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#169) | -4.0 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#205) | -0.41 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#217) | -0.60 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#173) | 0.500 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 20.7% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 22.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 10.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 66.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 9.9% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 58.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.7% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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