Betting Lines
| Spread | LEM -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | LEM -185 SFPA +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +5 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | SFPA -0.2 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -0.1 (-4.9) | 151.2 (+5.8) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEM -0.5 (-5.5) | 149.7 (+7.3) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -0.3 (-4.7) | 152.0 (+5.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -0.2 (-4.8) | 152.2 (+4.8) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | LEM 86 – 84 SFPA |
| Jan 3, 2026 | LEM 84 – 58 SFPA |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SFPA 86 – 78 LEM |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LEM 74 – 58 SFPA |
| Jan 21, 2024 | LEM 94 – 57 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEM | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 8-8 |
| Home | 6-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-16 | 6-13 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.4 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -13.7 (#350) | -10.3 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.98 (#332) | -1.69 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.71 (#336) | -2.12 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#323) | 0.446 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEM | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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