Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -50000 AMER +3500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +52 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -14.5 (+37.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (+16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -10.1 (+41.9) | 140.5 (+21.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -15.8 (+36.2) | 145.2 (+16.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -10.9 (+41.1) | 141.9 (+20.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -11.9 (+40.1) | 140.2 (+21.8) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#61) | 0.6 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#157) | 0.11 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#145) | 0.16 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.729 (#23) | 0.601 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 2.06 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 11.0% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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