Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | ILL +340 DUKE -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +43 | 177 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -6.4 (-36.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (+25.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -8.3 (-34.7) | 150.4 (+26.6) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -5.5 (-37.5) | 153.6 (+23.4) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -8.2 (-34.8) | 152.4 (+24.6) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -8.1 (-34.9) | 150.7 (+26.3) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2020 | ILL 83 – 68 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 35-4 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 19-1 |
| Home | 13-4 | 17-0 |
| Away | 5-5 | 10-1 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 8-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 19.1 (#12) | 25.5 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#33) | 3.83 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.26 (#29) | 4.90 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#50) | 0.650 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 43.8 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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