Charleston Southern
Buccaneers
76
–
86
FINAL
Neutral
Greenbrier Tip-Off
UT Rio Grande Valley
Vaqueros
Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | CHSO +155 RGV -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CHSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +10 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | RGV -2.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RGV -0.8 (-9.2) | 154.1 (+7.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RGV -1.1 (-8.9) | 151.9 (+10.1) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RGV -0.5 (-9.5) | 150.5 (+11.5) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CHSO | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 3-14 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L5 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#271) | -2.7 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#202) | -0.69 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#201) | -0.95 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#120) | 0.500 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CHSO | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 8.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.2% | 60.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 45.5% |
Game Analysis
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