Betting Lines
| Spread | TNTC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | VMI +145 TNTC -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNTC +1 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | VMI -4.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VMI -2.6 (-3.6) | 142.7 (+0.3) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VMI -2.4 (-3.4) | 142.0 (+1.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VMI -3.5 (-4.5) | 144.2 (-1.2) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#98) | -0.3 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#125) | 0.16 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#140) | 0.17 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#276) | 0.521 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 50.9% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 27.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 5.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 59.9% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 16.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 12.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 81.5% | 57.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 14.8% |
Game Analysis
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