Betting Lines
| Spread | NOLA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | STO +140 NOLA -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STO +26 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | NOLA -2.0 (+28.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NOLA -0.9 (+26.9) | 139.7 (-5.7) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -0.6 (+25.4) | 137.6 (-3.6) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NOLA -0.6 (+26.6) | 140.0 (-6.0) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NOLA -1.6 (+27.6) | 139.5 (-5.5) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 2-18 |
| Home | 11-3 | 0-11 |
| Away | 3-13 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L13 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 82.5 |
| Massey | -11.6 (#346) | -9.6 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#221) | -0.98 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#211) | -1.68 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#80) | 0.472 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 31.2% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 24.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.0% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 15.9% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.1% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.7% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 55.4% | 56.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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