Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | MER +135 UNCG -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +17 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -3.9 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -4.1 (-12.9) | 140.2 (-1.2) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -3.2 (-13.8) | 140.4 (-1.4) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -3.5 (-13.5) | 139.3 (-0.3) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -3.1 (-13.9) | 140.9 (-1.9) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | MER 95 – 77 UNCG |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MER 102 – 92 UNCG |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MER 79 – 78 UNCG |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MER 86 – 72 UNCG |
| Jan 28, 2024 | MER 70 – 64 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#260) | 1.2 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#256) | 0.28 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#278) | 0.26 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#275) | 0.529 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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