Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | CAL +155 SMU -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +4 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -6.8 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -6.1 (+2.1) | 153.7 (+4.3) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -6.6 (+2.6) | 154.7 (+3.3) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -5.6 (+1.6) | 153.4 (+4.6) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -5.8 (+1.8) | 155.2 (+2.8) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | CAL 73 – 69 SMU |
| Jan 30, 2025 | SMU 76 – 65 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 13-6 |
| Away | 2-11 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#112) | 13.3 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#148) | 1.95 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#133) | 2.32 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#189) | 0.571 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 38.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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