Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 171.5 Under |
| Money | IOWA -245 WSU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +10 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | WSU -2.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.3 (-28.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WSU -1.7 (+11.7) | 155.5 (-13.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WSU -2.7 (+12.7) | 156.1 (-14.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WSU -1.6 (+11.6) | 157.7 (-15.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WSU -0.6 (+10.6) | 155.3 (-13.3) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | WSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.5 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 78.6 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#86) | 7.3 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#77) | 1.59 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#79) | 2.42 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#99) | 0.729 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | WSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 41.0% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.94 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.4% | 58.4% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 41.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.7% | 35.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 7.7% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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