Betting Lines
| Spread | CBU -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | CBU -1200 LIU +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CBU +13 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | CBU -7.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (+21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CBU -6.0 (+7.0) | 140.1 (+26.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CBU -6.4 (+6.6) | 139.4 (+27.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CBU -5.4 (+7.6) | 141.0 (+26.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CBU -6.7 (+6.3) | 140.3 (+26.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CBU | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 12-4 |
| Home | 11-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 65.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#263) | -3.6 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#263) | 1.43 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#236) | 2.23 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#174) | 0.696 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CBU | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 41.7% |
| TOV% | 11.0% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 34.8% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 49.0% |
Game Analysis
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