Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MISS -230 CSU +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +15 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -2.6 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -2.2 (+12.8) | 138.3 (+14.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -2.6 (+12.4) | 137.2 (+15.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -2.6 (+12.4) | 141.3 (+11.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -1.6 (+13.4) | 138.3 (+14.7) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 16-4 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#91) | 1.9 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#35) | 1.18 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#30) | 1.72 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.697 (#33) | 0.611 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 26.0% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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