Betting Lines
| Spread | CHSO -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | VMI +145 CHSO -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VMI +11 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | VMI -9.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VMI -7.2 (+3.8) | 139.6 (+9.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VMI -7.6 (+3.4) | 139.0 (+10.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VMI -8.1 (+2.9) | 141.5 (+7.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VMI -6.2 (+4.8) | 140.2 (+8.8) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 7-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#127) | -6.7 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#213) | -1.59 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#197) | -2.39 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#269) | 0.433 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 58.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 78.5% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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