Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | TNTC +250 RGV -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +25 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | TNTC -1.9 (-26.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.7 (-26.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNTC -1.7 (-26.7) | 153.5 (-12.5) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -1.5 (-23.5) | 153.5 (-12.5) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNTC -1.5 (-26.5) | 154.0 (-13.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNTC -1.7 (-26.7) | 151.9 (-10.9) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L3 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#156) | -1.1 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#72) | 0.15 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#97) | 0.19 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.647 (#65) | 0.521 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 19.4% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 10.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 58.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 59.3% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 39.3% |
Game Analysis
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