Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | DETM +500 TOL -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DETM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +15 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -6.8 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -5.5 (-9.5) | 157.5 (-8.5) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -9.0 (-6.0) | 158.2 (-9.2) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -3.9 (-11.1) | 154.6 (-5.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -4.8 (-10.2) | 154.2 (-5.2) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | TOL 90 – 83 DETM |
| Nov 7, 2023 | TOL 94 – 60 DETM |
| Nov 14, 2021 | TOL 81 – 73 DETM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DETM | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-7 | 9-4 |
| Away | 2-15 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.3 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 81.1 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#332) | 5.3 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#186) | 1.75 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#202) | 2.49 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#216) | 0.681 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DETM | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 44.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 41.2% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 33.9% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 13.0% |
Game Analysis
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