Betting Lines
| Spread | UIW -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | UIW -1500 UAPB +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIW +28 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UIW -19.9 (+8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -13.3 (+14.7) | 154.6 (+1.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIW -13.9 (+14.1) | 152.2 (+3.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIW -14.4 (+13.6) | 153.3 (+2.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UIW -12.9 (+15.1) | 155.6 (+0.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2023 | UIW 100 – 81 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-17 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 3-15 |
| Home | 11-5 | 4-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 85.7 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#255) | -15.5 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#251) | -1.23 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#255) | -1.74 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#277) | 0.389 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 8.8% | 10.8% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 56.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.7% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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