Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | WIN -220 GASO +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GASO +2 | 176 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -6.9 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+24.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -5.2 (-7.2) | 146.6 (+29.4) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -7.6 (-9.6) | 149.8 (+26.2) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -6.0 (-8.0) | 150.3 (+25.7) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -5.6 (-7.6) | 147.9 (+28.1) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#185) | 1.4 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#141) | 0.13 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#151) | 0.27 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#145) | 0.750 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 26.5% | 40.8% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.7% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 53.7% |
Game Analysis
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