Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -4000 COLO +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -17.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.1 (+17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -13.8 (-4.8) | 129.3 (+15.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -13.9 (-4.9) | 126.0 (+19.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -14.2 (-5.2) | 128.6 (+16.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -14.4 (-5.4) | 128.6 (+16.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | HOU 102 – 62 COLO |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HOU 69 – 59 COLO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-5 | 14-21 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 3-17 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-7 |
| Away | 10-0 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 24.6 (#3) | 7.1 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.90 (#6) | 1.01 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.05 (#5) | 1.21 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.644 (#7) | 0.497 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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