Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | UK -295 OU +245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +1 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | UK -7.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -5.0 (-4.0) | 160.8 (+8.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -4.8 (-3.8) | 161.2 (+7.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -5.0 (-4.0) | 163.4 (+5.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -5.6 (-4.6) | 160.9 (+8.1) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | UK 94 – 78 OU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UK 83 – 82 OU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | OU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.4 | 78.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 19.3 (#12) | 12.2 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.40 (#8) | 2.79 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.05 (#10) | 3.57 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#11) | 0.564 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | OU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 31.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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