Betting Lines
| Spread | W&M -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | W&M -210 NCCU +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | W&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +2 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | W&M -5.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | W&M -3.8 (-5.8) | 145.7 (+8.3) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | W&M -3.1 (-5.1) | 149.0 (+5.0) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | W&M -3.1 (-5.1) | 148.2 (+5.8) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | W&M -3.7 (-5.7) | 146.3 (+7.7) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | W&M | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#152) | -4.4 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#210) | -2.12 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#163) | -2.75 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#133) | 0.400 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | W&M | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 26.2% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 27.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 32.8% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 24.2% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 54.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.6% | 33.8% |
Game Analysis
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