Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU +190 UNC -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +27 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -3.2 (-23.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -3.7 (-23.3) | 139.0 (+24.0) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -3.1 (-23.9) | 140.1 (+22.9) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -3.7 (-23.3) | 140.1 (+22.9) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -3.2 (-23.8) | 138.3 (+24.7) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-10 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 12-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-4 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#55) | 14.3 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#45) | 2.20 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#46) | 2.80 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#29) | 0.587 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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