Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | ALST -175 SFPA +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +2 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -2.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -1.7 (+0.3) | 137.1 (+0.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -3.0 (-1.0) | 135.6 (+2.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -2.4 (-0.4) | 135.6 (+2.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -1.8 (+0.2) | 136.4 (+1.6) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-8 |
| Home | 8-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-10 | 6-13 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#273) | -9.3 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#250) | -1.14 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#280) | -1.61 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#196) | 0.487 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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