Betting Lines
| Spread | ELON -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ARMY +180 ELON -215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARMY +5 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | ELON -8.2 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (+16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ELON -7.3 (+12.3) | 145.5 (+15.5) | 24% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ELON -5.6 (+10.6) | 146.5 (+14.5) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ELON -6.7 (+11.7) | 147.3 (+13.7) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ELON -7.0 (+12.0) | 145.5 (+15.5) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#321) | -1.7 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#273) | -0.46 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#287) | -0.37 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#228) | 0.487 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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