Betting Lines
| Spread | QUC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | NAU +110 QUC -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | QUC +7 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | QUC -1.6 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | QUC -1.8 (-5.2) | 146.7 (+16.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | QUC -1.6 (-5.4) | 145.3 (+17.7) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | QUC -1.6 (-5.4) | 148.2 (+14.8) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | QUC -1.7 (-5.3) | 147.1 (+15.9) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 7-8 | 9-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#236) | -2.8 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#248) | -0.28 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#253) | -0.59 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#285) | 0.485 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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