Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UCI -380 JXST +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +5 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -9.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -9.4 (-4.4) | 139.7 (-12.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -9.3 (-4.3) | 140.7 (-13.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -9.6 (-4.6) | 140.4 (-13.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -10.0 (-5.0) | 140.1 (-13.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 14-3 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#67) | 2.7 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#46) | 0.94 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#58) | 1.05 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#27) | 0.548 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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