Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | JAX -175 UIW +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIW +16 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | JAX -2.7 (-18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -2.0 (-18.0) | 138.5 (+19.5) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -2.6 (-18.6) | 137.9 (+20.1) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -2.2 (-18.2) | 139.5 (+18.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -2.4 (-18.4) | 138.5 (+19.5) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 7-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#187) | -4.3 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#174) | -0.96 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#161) | -1.08 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#149) | 0.460 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.