Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | FGCU -750 ARMY +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FGCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +3 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | FGCU -8.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -8.0 (-5.0) | 144.7 (-11.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -6.6 (-3.6) | 142.9 (-9.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -7.5 (-4.5) | 146.0 (-13.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -6.8 (-3.8) | 144.5 (-11.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FGCU | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#170) | -9.4 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#182) | -0.99 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#187) | -1.53 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#167) | 0.480 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FGCU | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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