Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UIW +230 ILST -280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +5 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | ILST -5.6 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -4.9 (-0.1) | 141.4 (+9.6) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -5.7 (+0.7) | 138.5 (+12.5) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -4.9 (-0.1) | 141.4 (+9.6) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -5.1 (+0.1) | 142.8 (+8.2) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-17 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#227) | 1.9 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#245) | 0.53 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#232) | 0.48 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#237) | 0.519 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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