Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | CLE +110 ILST -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +11 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | ILST -2.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -1.9 (-9.1) | 134.2 (+12.8) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -1.3 (-9.7) | 132.1 (+14.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -1.8 (-9.2) | 134.3 (+12.7) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -2.1 (-8.9) | 134.8 (+12.2) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLE | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-7 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#159) | 1.9 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#144) | 0.54 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#138) | 0.51 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#150) | 0.521 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLE | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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