Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | UCI +100 UNT -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -1.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.3 (+13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -1.7 (+0.3) | 129.2 (+6.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -0.4 (+1.6) | 124.0 (+12.0) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -1.2 (+0.8) | 124.9 (+11.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -1.4 (+0.6) | 127.6 (+8.4) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-2 | 17-1 |
| Away | 14-3 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 60.6 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#67) | 7.4 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#45) | 1.66 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#56) | 1.83 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#19) | 0.589 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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