Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | LUC -150 UTC +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +7 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | UTC -0.3 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -0.4 (-6.6) | 145.4 (+7.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -0.4 (-7.4) | 142.6 (+10.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -0.3 (-7.3) | 145.8 (+7.2) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -0.1 (-6.9) | 146.9 (+6.1) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 29-9 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 17-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 12-5 |
| Neutral | 1-6 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#114) | 3.6 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#84) | 1.25 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#90) | 1.37 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#85) | 0.573 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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