Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | USC -340 TULN +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +29 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | USC -7.9 (+21.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -9.1 (+19.9) | 149.5 (-0.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -6.4 (+22.6) | 146.9 (+2.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -8.2 (+20.8) | 150.1 (-1.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -7.5 (+21.5) | 151.9 (-2.9) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-7 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#61) | 1.7 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#71) | 0.09 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#59) | 0.15 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#108) | 0.498 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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