Betting Lines
| Spread | NEB -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | GTWN +400 NEB -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +12 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | NEB -4.2 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEB -3.5 (-8.5) | 141.0 (+9.0) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEB -4.1 (-7.9) | 142.2 (+7.8) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -3.6 (-8.4) | 142.8 (+7.2) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -3.6 (-8.4) | 142.6 (+7.4) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#85) | 10.8 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#102) | 1.79 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#104) | 2.59 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#170) | 0.556 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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