Betting Lines
| Spread | BOIS -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | NEB +125 BOIS -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +10 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | BOIS -1.3 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BOIS -2.3 (+12.3) | 143.1 (+4.9) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BOIS -2.4 (+12.4) | 142.9 (+5.1) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BOIS -2.1 (+12.1) | 144.7 (+3.3) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BOIS -2.5 (+12.5) | 146.1 (+1.9) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 67.0 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#56) | 12.3 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#55) | 2.02 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#48) | 2.55 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#64) | 0.573 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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