Betting Lines
| Spread | NEB -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | UCF +150 NEB -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +11 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | NEB -3.2 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.3 (-18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEB -2.5 (-8.5) | 159.6 (-16.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEB -2.4 (-8.6) | 162.0 (-19.0) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -3.7 (-7.3) | 161.4 (-18.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -2.3 (-8.7) | 159.6 (-16.6) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.4 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#69) | 11.4 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#57) | 1.93 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#66) | 2.74 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#82) | 0.565 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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