Betting Lines
| Spread | GASO -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | W&M +120 GASO -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | W&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | W&M +15 | 189 | Won |
| Massey | GASO -2.4 (+17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.5 (+19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GASO -2.1 (+17.1) | 156.9 (+32.1) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GASO -0.8 (+15.8) | 159.3 (+29.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GASO -1.6 (+16.6) | 159.3 (+29.7) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GASO -2.3 (+17.3) | 157.2 (+31.8) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | W&M | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#152) | 3.3 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#210) | 2.04 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#163) | 2.61 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#133) | 0.665 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | W&M | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 32.8% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.6% | 52.1% |
Game Analysis
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