Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -105 TCU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +11 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -1.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -2.1 (+8.9) | 152.3 (+0.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -2.4 (+8.6) | 149.1 (+3.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -3.0 (+8.0) | 149.1 (+3.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -2.3 (+8.7) | 149.7 (+3.3) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | TCU 89 – 78 UCF |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UCF 85 – 58 TCU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UCF 79 – 77 TCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-5 | 14-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#54) | 12.0 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#31) | 2.30 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#35) | 3.16 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#32) | 0.551 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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