Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -180 NEB +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +3 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | NEB -3.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEB -2.4 (+5.4) | 140.1 (+10.9) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEB -1.3 (+4.3) | 139.5 (+11.5) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -1.3 (+4.3) | 141.1 (+9.9) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -1.8 (+4.8) | 139.9 (+11.1) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 7-13 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-6 |
| Away | 9-1 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.8 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#139) | 4.8 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#98) | 1.61 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#104) | 2.50 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#190) | 0.597 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 24.6% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.7 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 45.6% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 33.0% | 39.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.8% | 26.2% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 9.9% |
Game Analysis
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